The Circus Moves Town: Why the Warnock Sacking was Correct

The Ringmaster - created by James Lister

The big decision that has appeared to split opinion in the football world in the last 24 hours is the decision of QPR to sack Neil Warnock. Such is the diversity of opinion, with as many commending the ballsy stand of Tony Fernandes and his directors as those recoiling in incredulity at the decision, that the level of support for Warnock must surpass any level he has achieved in his long career in football. 

A lot of the defence for Warnock centres around the timing of the decision, the fact that QPR (a newly promoted club) sit outside the relegation places and that he was hampered in his ability to act at the start of the season due to the takeover deal at Loftus Road. Yet I think each of these arguments can be put to bed alongside some other analysis of his career.

Taking QPR's form first of all. Yes, they sit outside the relegation places and yes they have recently beaten Chelsea, amongst others. However, it is your form against the teams around you that can save you in a relegation battle. The failure to take more than a point from any of the teams in the bottom ten is potentially what can cost the R's at the end of the season, particularly if replicated in return fixtures.

Based on their form over the first twenty games, QPR are heading for 32 points, which would mean relegation in four of the last five seasons. You can argue that a lower total may see a side relegated this year, but no-one can predict what might happen in the remainder of the season.

When Warnock managed Sheffield United in their last Premier League season, it was his tactics away from home that proved costly.Performances proving that he lacks ideas once teams have sussed out his team and tactics. The penultimate game away against an average Villa side being a game that most fans point to. Odd team selection, negative tactics and on the back foot throughout a 3-0 defeat. Those goals conceded were to prove costly. As much as fans point to the one goal differential that sent United down, to the Tevez scandal and to general bad luck, there were numerous times Warnock got it wrong - not that he would ever admit to it.

Interestingly, it is QPR's home form that is an issue this time around. With just one win at home in 10 games there are clearly issues to be addressed. At most other clubs there would be an element of the support becoming restless and vocal. Credit to R's fans because I have read little of it happening at Loftus Road. How long might that have lasted though? Especially if the away form isn't enough to compensate.

People question the time Warnock's been given, especially on the back of such a convincing Championship title winning season, and the fact that his pre-season transfer market activity was impinged by Fernandes' protracted takeover. Yet when Warnock is given significant amounts of money to spend he fails to use it wisely and it has limited impact.

It is a popular misconception, one that Warnock was happy to enhance, that Kevin McCabe failed to back Warnock in the transfer market. Maybe he didn't provide funds to the extent of other clubs, but most of the time Warnock was given significant money to spend it was wasted.

Take the promotion season of 2005-06, when he spent big in January to pep up the attack with Ade Akinbiyi and Geoff Horsfield arriving for £1.75m and £1.2m respectively. Akinbiyi made 18 appearancesand scored 3 goals (5 of those appearances the following season in the PremierLeague) before United lost £1m on his sale back to Burnley. Horsfield signed on loan with an agreed permanent transfer of £1.2m fixed in place. He made just three appearances and was eventually released from his contract.

In January 2006, the Blades sat 15th in the Premier League with 23 points from 21 games and 5 points clear of the relegation zone. Given significant funds to spend Warnock signed the following:

Luton Shelton (£2m - 2 starts and 2 sub appearances to the end of the season)

Matthew Kilgallon (£1.75m - 6 appearances to the end of the season)

Ahmed Fathy (£700k - 2 starts and 1 sub appearance to the end of the season)

Jon Stead (£750k - a relative success with 5 goals in 12 starts)

Added to that he had spent a club record fee of around £3m the previous Summer on
Claude Davis, who made just 18 starts all season.

It is worth noting that, amongst all the factors to be blamed for the Blades' subsequent relegation in the pages of his autobiography "Made in Sheffield", no mention is made of his transfer activity that January. In fact the only way you would know these players had arrived was from his complaints about the stonewall penalty claim that Luton Shelton had at Old Trafford towards the end of the season. A convenient re-write of history and demonstrating the man's inability to admit he does get it wrong.

This season has a similar feel. Joey Barton is more in the news for ill-discipline and his use of Twitter, rathert han his on-pitch performances and impact. Kieron Dyer lasted three minutes,Shaun Wright-Phillips is frustratingly inconsistent, Jay Bothoyd is out of favour and made just 11 starts, Danny Gabbidon is thought to lack pace, DJ Campbell has made just 2 appearances, although Armand Traoré and Anton Ferdinand have been steady enough. Meanwhile Bruno Perone and Brian Murphy have made two appearances between them, typical Warnock signings you might say.

The only thing Neil Warnock is focused on is himself and often to the detriment of the club he manages. He was given more time than any other manager would have had in the circumstances at Bramall Lane. After two cup semi-finals and a play-off final defeat in 2003, the next two seasons saw United miss out on the Play Offs. The final game of the 2004/05 season saw United lose at home to Millwall and finish the game with Chris Morgan up front, Phil Jagielka in central midfield and Andy Gray in central defence. You could legitimately question his thinking and ideas and many did at the end of the match during the team's "lap of honour". Yet the United board stood by him and Warnock repaid them in awful fashion.

In 2005/06 with the Blades having made a good start to the season, he entered contract negotiations to leave his "beloved Blades" and join Portsmouth, all whilst preparing for a Sheffield Derby. He eventually stayed and the following May saw him lead the Blades back to the top tier. The worst example though was his  bleating to the press about his contract situation on the morning of the final game of the Premier League season against Wigan Athletic. All the while conveniently forgetting the time and support he had been given (and taken)  in order to get the club to the Premier League. At the same time, losing focus from the important task in hand.

Neil always used to play on the fact that he was a Blade and how much he loved the club. This becomes something the fans cling to, some still do sadly. He says all the right things. Yet you soon realise he says the same things everywhere he goes. As Blades fans were once the best fans and Kevin McCabe the best chairman, it soon became Palace supporters and Simon Jordan. Then it was R's supporters.....who next?

The thing that ultimately grates with Neil is that when things are good he wants all the credit. When things start going sour, it is never his fault. As things start to deteriorate, he flails about like a fish out of water, with accusations and blame cast to all and sundry. The ensuing media attention masking both his and the team's failings, whilst embarrassing the fans in the know. The recent rant against Van Persie, appears to be the start of him entering that downward spiral of myths yet again. 

The BBC's Dan Walker tweeted this morning; "(It) says everything about Neil Warnock's reputation that at least 10 Champ sides will be eyeing him up this morning." And therein lies the issue with Neil Warnock. A good Championship manager he is, but he lacks the mental toughness and tactical capability to cut it at the top level. Something that Tony Fernandes may have acknowledged and something I can't help wishing we had acknowledged sooner at Sheffield United. If Kevin McCabe had cut the strings at Christmas, might the season have had a happier ending?

Many Blades fans would agree, he was the wrong man to manage us in the Premier League however, once he had remained in situ, he was the right man to get us back there post relegation. He was never given that chance and now too many bridges have been burned, both with elements of the support, but also owner Kevin McCabe. You see, it was okay for Warnock to seek out new opportunities, but not okay for his hand to be forced with a sacking.

I have respect for a lot of what Warnock achieved at United and throughout the rest of his career, however I think a fellow Blade summed it up quite well on twitter last night. In response to ridiculous talk from a minority of Unitedites, who were wanting a Warnock return at the expense of Danny Wilson, he finished off his point by saying that aside from anything else; Warnock is  "A circus we don't need in town". I have no doubt he will pitch up elsewhere though and will probably be a success. Once you've seen the show though, I don't think it ever can, or should, be repeated.

Charting the Week in Football 8

As the domestic and European seasons come to an end, I leave you with a bumper selection of charts and graphs covering the stats that tell different stories for some teams' seasons, the anonymous footballer, an anonymous (and expensive) striker, rent-a-quote managers, Teflon Blatter, the truth about Premiership relegation, the composition of Scottish football and a conundrum for Jeff.

There may be a few intermittent Charting the Weeks over the Summer if the stories warrant it and if you the readers want it. Until then, enjoy these.......

Coming later this week: A new series for the Summer as various writers select their own "My Dislikable XI"

 

If you want a recap of the seven previous weeks of charts:

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

The Fading Actress

At one time it was thought that this report might be a post mortem, but the patient is still breathing…just. Analysis shows that the patient's precarious position was the result of many, often self-inflicted, blows over a prolonged period of time. So many poorly thought out decisions have led to physical and mental pain being inflicted and it may take a while to rebuild her life and return to full strength.

Probably of as much concern is the mental condition of those close to the patient, who had to witness such behaviour and the corresponding downturn in health, and we should monitor their continuing well being.  Many have already chosen to walk away from the patient, yet their ongoing support - however distressing it may be- is vital at this time.

Evidence points to the first blow being struck as long ago as January 2007. The patient, a long-standing familiar face but fleeting high flyer, had only recently returned to the premier spotlight. A decision was made to invest a relatively  considerable amount on cosmetic surgery in an attempt to preserve her top tier status, one she had fought so hard to re-establish.

Unfortunately, the surgeon used to undertake the significant task - a Mr N Warnock - lacked sufficient experience and skill to deal with such significant change. Much of the money was spent with little overall impact, leaving the patient disappointed  and a good league below the look she was aiming for.

At that point the patient sacked Mr Warnock, when actually the simpler, minor reconstructive surgery that would have been required was more his speciality. Instead the patient decided a more world renowned, "name" surgeon was required. However the only candidate she met with had seen his best days behind him and in a slightly different and more practical field.

It was also around this time that the patient was fortunate enough to come into significant compensation. Although many saw Mr Warnock to blame for her fall from grace, he was relieved to see that his professional standing suffered only minor damage, as some of the blame for his failings was successfully deflected onto others.

Friends of the patient quickly became concerned, as the patient threw more money at reconstruction than necessary. Some of which might have been better spent back in January. Money that Mr Robson (the unanimous choice as surgeon, from a short list of one)  was spending with carefree abandon.

It took  prolonged prompting and protestation from her friends before the patient realised that they were chasing a dream that was not to be realised with the existing strategy. That, despite protests to the contrary from Mr Robson, he was in fact only making the situation worse. His dour demeanour gave little hope that he could put right his failings.

It was during this time that, prompted by her sugar daddy, the patient decided to look at other ways to make money, to finance the pursuit of fame and success.  The first of these was a decision to travel the World. Quite public relationships were sought as she felt that these friendships were going to be profitable both emotionally in the short term and financially in the long term. After all, an international jetsetter presents a  more positive look for potential suitors. Unfortunately, over time, these relationships unravelled as it was revealed that the patient was being strung along by these new partners and incurring significant financial losses.

She also invested in properties, however this was to prove to be poor timing, just before the property crash. All in all, these proved more of a deterrent to potential suitors than an enticement and her sugar daddy suffered alongside her.

At such a distressing time, she took succour in a common sense talking to from a direct, straight talking psychologist, a Mr Blackwell. His strategy was simple; to  first stabilise the patient and then help them acknowledge there was a more direct route to achieve the desired outcome. The end product might not be as pretty, but it was hoped that it would be effective.

Within 18 months Mr Blackwell came close to delivering what the patient needed, but was unable to push the patient that final step. Following his "failure", the cracks in the working relationship between Mr Blackwell and the patient became more apparent and Mr Blackwell broke down on live television, questioning his own ability to do the job asked of him.

Following the fall from the spotlight, income streams had started to dry up for the patient. Year on year the extravagances were being reigned in, only for monies to be splurged in other ways. Despite this, they continued to work together, although Mr Blackwell expressed doubts about what he could achieve on a much tighter budget. He was right to be concerned, as he was unable to repeat or better his earlier near success.

It was also around this time, that the patient started making passing acquaintance with a number of supposedly top level "players" on the scene, in a desperate attempt to pull herself back into the spotlight. These did little to help her situation, only around fleetingly they spent large sums of her money and did little to improve her standing. Despite reassuring her friends that she would not continue with such behaviour, these relationships have continued over the last 12 months. Alongside this others have hung around more permanently, content to receive financial support, often whilst recuperating, yet giving her little in return. The financial and emotional bruising from these encounters have left the patient at her lowest ebb for some time.

Back in August last year, the patient took the surprising step of ceasing to use  Mr Blackwell's services. Surprising in that it had been expected much earlier and the timing, shortly after Mr Blackwell had invested her money in new ideas and resources, could only be to her detriment.

Not unexpectedly, given the timing, she took a chance with Mr Blackwell's young understudy, his media popularity attracted her in the same way Mr Robson had previously. It was hoped that the experience of working alongside Mr Blackwell and many of his more illustrious contemporaries would hold Mr Speed in good stead.

Unfortunately very little improvement was made and Mr Speed soon sought better paid work, in a more stable environment, where the likelihood of failure was halfway expected and he was less likely to be sacked. A Mr Carver briefly stood in, but next the patient sought the counsel of a self-confessed, boyhood fan. This had (briefly) worked well for her before and she believed it might just be the impetus she needed to move onwards and upwards once more.

Unfortunately Mr Adams' methods rankled with those she relied upon and he struggled to get the required results for some time. Her self-confidence plummeted and may friends questioned the apparent passion he, this so-called fan, displayed for her when talking in public.

So what now for the patient? A small injection of youth started to have a revitalising effect recently, but it was too late to prevent a set back that had been apparent for a while. Further injections of youth are most probably the way forward.

Estimates of potential rehabilitation time vary. It depends how much experience the patient holds on to, in order to combine with the youth and energise an aching body. With the patient spending beyond their means for so long, financial hardship is likely. With close friends, of many years standing, walking away and her sugar daddy unable to financially support her whims, the ability to spend her way back to that better place is not going to be possible.

A tough and painful rehabilitation is ahead. The patient needs to be patient. Friends might also need to hold back on their ambitions, as the patient should not try to walk before she can run. She is now operating in a new tougher environment, where she may be viewed as a big fish in a small pond and with confidence and strength knocked out of her. There may be more physical and mental blows ahead and a full rehabilitation is by no means a certainty.

Postscript 10th April 2011:

Just days after compiling this report, the patient's sugar daddy pulled the plug on funding the treatment provided by Mr Adams. Friends are increasingly worried about her mental state, as short term decision making upon a litany of previous short term decisions is leaving her increasingly confused and illogical. They all know she has to be stabilised quickly, but there is little concensus as to how to do it. Sad days....

Charting the Week in Football 5

Week 5 and this week we have Avram Grant and his superiors at West Ham, players turning up (or not) on the big occasion, paranoid managers, a recipe for a Sheffield relegation and yet another Neil Warnock chart......sorry I can't help myself!

Graphs and Charts from previous weeks are here:

Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4 

Charting the Week in Football - Week 3

Another batch of the week's football news; featuring Fergie, Mad Dog, Colin, Il Nuovo Divin Codino, an over-ambitious chairman and ever hopeful ITV commentators.

Week 1 is here and Week 2 is here